Simulating Climate Impacts on Rice Agroecosystems in an Giang Province: Pests, Yield and Resources

Abstract

Rice is a staple food crop in Vietnam, with a majority of production centered in the Mekong River Delta, especially in An Giang province. Ensuring sustainable rice cultivation under climate change requires an understanding of how projected shifts may impact rice agroecosystems. Simulation modeling provides important insights for forecasting climate change effects on key factors like pests, diseases, yield, evapotranspiration, and water requirements. The warning model of 90-100-day rice crop insect pests and diseases is programmed in FORTRAN based on rice growth stages, pest and disease species, and meteorological factors. Results show certain pests proliferate while others manifest only at specific stages. Climate change models predict decreased pest pressure but also reduced yields in Vietnam, indicating a need for adapted management strategies. Separate rice yield modeling using ORYZA2000 reveals stable autumn-winter harvests but rainfall-vulnerable winter-spring and summer-autumn yields. Emission scenarios also predict declining yields by mid-century in studied regions. Modeling of evapotranspiration and water requirements with CROPWAT 8.0 demonstrates the highest evapotranspiration in summer-autumn and greatest water needs in winter-spring. Climate change scenarios project increasing evapotranspiration and water requirements through 2099, threatening rice production. In summary, complex meteorological interactions influence rice pests, diseases, yield, evapotranspiration, and water requirements in An Giang province. Climate change models consistently predict challenges to rice cultivation from pests, yield reductions, and rising resource demands.