A Systems Thinking Analysis of Healthcare Supply and Demand Management

A Case Study of Malaysian Public Hospitals

抄録

This study elucidates system structure modelling of how the growing number of patients impacts healthcare service utilization. A dynamic causal loop diagram (CLD) as a qualitative aspect of system dynamics model is employed to provide a holistic view of feedback relationships between patient pathways to the hospital and the supply of healthcare,including factors such as healthcare financing, physicians, and hospital beds. On the basis of knowledge drawn from existing studies, it is hypothesized that morbidity and disease prevalence and budget allocation as indicators of medical need and expected medical demand, respectively, are assumed to positively influence citizens' hospital visits. Healthcare funds allocated to hospitals to improve healthcare facilities and increase the number of staff have triggered positive expectations from Malaysians regarding the utilization of public healthcare facilities. Supplying an adequate medical workforce and hospital capacity via funds spent on this service are indicators of improved service quality. The causal model constructed is the initial phase of a system dynamics model for the development of a quantitative simulation model in the future.