A Model for Forecasting the Minimum Wage in Mexico

抄録

This paper presents a mathematical model for forecasting the Mexico’s minimum wage using regressions. First, the Mexico’s minimum wage is investigated by EXCEL to observe the different trends. The trends studied are: exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, power and moving average. The model that is adjusted to real conditions of the Mexico’s minimum wage is developed by regressions through the data analysis of 25 years from 1993 until 2017. According to the figures shown, it is clearly observed that the polynomial trend of fourth order is more accurate with respect to exponential, linear, logarithmic, power and moving average. Then, the Polynomial Regression Model of fourth order has been developed, because it is the most appropriate, and also it is adjusted to real conditions of the Mexico’s minimum wage, which is the main contribution of this paper.