抄録
Replacement demand of durable goods such as automobile is not only an important driving force of economic growth but also a key factor in emissions reduction. Considering the future replacement demand largely depend on engineering scrappage reflecting physical wear and tear which increases with products age and/or use (Greenspan and Cohen, 1999), this study proposed a novel method to forecast the replacement demand of durable goods and the life cycle emissions by incorporating product lifetime distributions reflecting the engineering scrappage into the waste input-output analysis (Nakamura and Kondo, 2009).
