Elderly Dependency, Family Labor Supply, and Fertility

抄録

This paper presents an analysis of the effects of increased elderly long-term care necessary for elderly dependent parents, especially effects on the family labor supply and the fertility rate. The increased probability of becoming dependent during old age lowers both the fertility rate and the family market labor supply. It might lead family member（s）to “leave for elderly care.” Nevertheless, it increases the per-worker capital stock and hence the wage rate. Consequently, effects on per-worker wage income and expected lifetime utility are ambiguous.