Nationwide Storm Surge Damage Estimation to Factor in Global Warming, Population Change and Adaptation to Storm Surge

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Nationwide spatial distribution and temporal alteration of storm surge damage of Japan in 2050 and 2100 were estimated by using global mean temperature change and sea level rise in IPCC 5th Assessment Report and by taking into account population change and adaptation to storm surge. The adaptation is to heighten seawall. The results showed that the three major bays, Seto Inland Sea and Ariake/Yatsushiro Sea have relatively high storm surge damage risks. The nationwide storm surge damage risk changes in proportion to national population change. In case of taking the adaptation to storm surge, the storm surge damage risk is obviously reduced in 2000-2050, although the damage risk increases in 2050-2100.