東京湾の航行安全向上を図るための船舶運航・港湾施設政策に関する研究

抄録

In this study, some policies concerning ship operations and port facilities to improve the safety of navigation in Tokyo Bay are proposed. These policies are:

① change of ship's route

② enlargement of tanker size

③ change of departure time

④ installation of pipeline

⑤ shift of tanker berth(including④)

⑥ composite policy （②十④十⑤）

To evaluate the effect of each policy, a new marine traffic simulation method is developed. This simulation method represents the marine traffic flow by the network and the ships generated at the origin nodes proceed on the links of the network to the destination nodes. Subjective judgement value proposed by Hara is used as an index of the ship's collision risk. The effect of each policy is quantitatively investigated by calculating how many dangerous ships having high collision risk can be reduced by that policy . As a result, it is found that the composite policy is most effective to improve the safety of navigation . The enlargement of tanker size and the installation of pipeline are especially effective as a single policy. It is concluded that the developed marine traffic simulation method is very useful to find out the places where high collision risk exists and to examine the policies for improving the safety of navigation.