Practical Application of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis Based on Distance from the Earthquake Source Fault

Abstract

Fault displacements can cause structural damage and loss of functionality. The conventional framework for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) estimates the characteristics of distributed ruptures as a function of distance from the principal fault. Recently, revised fault displacement prediction equations (FDPEs) have been proposed as a means to capture the attenuation characteristics of fault displacement in the far-field as a function of distance from the subsurface earthquake source faults, without classifying surface ruptures as principal or distributed. These FDPEs enable us to address many of the challenges identified during the first practical application of PFDHA in Japan, which was conducted at the Ikata site in northwestern Shikoku. In this study, we conducted a case study of PFDHA based on distance from the earthquake source faults at the Ikata site. Based on the results, we report the characteristics of the new FDPEs and insights gained from their practical application at the Ikata site.