原子力開発における信頼形成過程に関するベイズ的考察

抄録

The sodium leak accident of MONJU, a fast breeder reactor that Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC) has operated since 1995 in Japan, and the PNC's management of the accident have created the public distrust not only in the safety of MONJU but also in the nuclear development policy of Japan. In order to learn a lesson from these and to establish a relationship of mutual trust with the public, this paper simulates process of the public reliance in cases of an accident, no accident, a cover-up, and so on. In this paper the public reliance is defined as the conditional probability that the nuclear reactor is safe given the state of information that the public has. The conditional probability is estimated by using the Bayes' Theorem. The simulation shows that (1) we lose the public reliance by only one accident, recover it by a many-year safe operation, but never by a cover-up, and (2) the more information we open to the public, the better relationship of mutual trust with the public we would establish, especially in an early stage of operation.