High-resolution and long-term land surface analysis in the Aral Sea basin

Abstract

Many years have passed since the “Aral Sea Crisis” shocked the world. However, to this day, there is no coordinated approach to water resources among independent countries, and sloppy water management is still practiced. As soon as possible, we need to provide scientific evidence that will contribute to the realization of sustainable water resources management in the Aral Sea basin. In this study, we improved the physical model (SiBUC) of the Aral Sea basin by increasing the spatial resolution to 30 seconds, and by using various newly available data. Specifically, the use of Global Soil Wetness Project Phase3 (GSWP3) for forcing input data and the inflow into Lake Sarygamysh were newly considered. In addition, the parallelization of calculations in SiBUC and the saving of calculation area by creating basin masks have realized high-resolution calculations. As a result, we succeeded in visualizing the impact of climate change and land use change in the region. In addition, water storage and water balance of the Aral Sea were analyzed with good accuracy. However, considering the impact of Sarygamysh Lake, there is not enough runoff, so we need to check the water balance in each tributary area to find out what the problem is.