人口減少社会への政策科学的アプローチ

抄録

Japanese population reached its peak in 2008, and then began to decrease. According to the 2015 Population Census, the total population of Japan was 127.09 million. It has lost almost one million residents (-0.8%) since the 2010 Census. Japan has now entered the post-demographic transitional phase and is expected to see its population contract by nearly one third to 88.1 million, and its proportion of the elderly (65 years of age and over) will account for no less than 39.9% in 2065 (Population Projections for Japan 2017: IPSS). The nature of this crisis consists of below-replacement fertility and migration of the young generation seeking education and employment opportunities in the metropolitan area. To transform Japan from a shrinking society to a sustainable one, we need to take a policy science approach, setting clear targets and strategies. Thereby, the two key mega-policies are the redistribution policy, enforcing the effective demand of the working population, and the decentralization policy of capital functions (the relocation of business centers, central government ministries and agencies) for newly designed national land use. As for meta-policies, we need to develop new measures, such as planning for reduction equilibrium, infrastructure reuse-renovation, and IoT (Internet of Things) administration systems for human use.