未来の石油発見を予測する

－「探鉱シミュレーター」の試み－

抄録

Almost all sedimentary basins of the world have already been explored and field data have been accumulated. However, available statistical methods for predicting future discoveries (e.g. creaming curve) are qualitative or semi-quantitative, and no real quantitative method has been established to date. In this study, assuming power-law (fractal) distribution for subsurface field size and treating exploration as a stochastic process consisting of random walks, a fully quantitative method is developed for predicting number, size and cumulative reserves of future discoveries. First, the concept of the method is explained using discrete binomial distribution for fluctuation, and then, an “exploration simulator” is introduced applying continuous normal distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. The application to a number of basins of the world has verified the validity of this method, which can provide useful guidance for the future exploration efforts and reliable supply-side information for the “peak oil” argument.