アナログデータを用いた石油の移動・集積リスク評価

抄録

The greatest challenge in petroleum migration risk analysis arises from the fact that specifying migration pathways is extremely difficult by using currently available data such as 3D seismic, due to their insufficient resolution. Utilizing petroleum play analogues as indirect data is, therefore, one of the important approaches to improve the analysis.

An example from UK North Sea pre-Cretaceous plays was shown to demonstrate validity of the approach. Historical exploration well data drilled in the common petroleum system or plays were collected, and the relationship between migration-related parameters and drilling results was statistically analyzed. It revealed that migration style, reservoir age and migration distance are the parameters most strongly related to successful or failed migration. Those statistical analysis results can be used as reference to determine migration chance factor for the plays, which subsequently helps to determine that for undrilled prospects.

Petroleum migration risk analysis by using play analogues must be combined with other methods such as well/seismic shows analysis and petroleum system modeling. Systematic and integrated approach must lead to better understanding and risking of plays/prospects, and new insight into further exploration potentials.