段階的建設オプションを考慮した市街地再開発事業のリアルオプション的評価手法

抄録

In Japan, land price would not be expected to rise rapidly as before. Therefore, the value of urban redevelopment projects would depend on cash-flow of income gain more than capital gain. The value of income gain would be so sensitive to uncertainty such as floor rent and vacancy rate etc. In addition, recent researches indicate that flexibility of decision making on projects, which is called real option, should be considered in project evaluation. Kariya (2001) and Kawaguchi (2002) developed evaluation methods for real estate projects including uncertainty and real option. Kariya (2001) developed standard method considering uncertainties of floor rent and vacancy rate on building usage stage, and Kawaguchi (2002) expanded it to evaluate various uncertainties on from project planning stage to building usage stage. In this study, we expand those methods of Kariya (2001) and Kawaguchi (2002) as to evaluate urban redevelopment project including real option of multiple staged constructions which can be found in real world. Then the calculation method is presented using Dynamic Discount Cash Flow Method. Finally in application the usefulness and feature of the method are proved.