Impact Analysis of Various Earthquake Scenarios Using a Simplified Web Application for Earthquake Damage Estimation

抄録

An earthquake in metropolitan Tokyo would be a national crisis in terms of the enormous number of affected population and properties and various types of complicated damages and impact in areas where there is a concentration of capital, social, and economic functions. Moreover, the process of being affected by the disaster is so complicated that it has not been fully understood and the various possibilities of earthquake occurrence scenarios have not been fully analyzed. In addition, those understandings and analyses have not been fully utilized for disaster mitigation or preparedness.

Intended to estimate complicated phenomena, this study discusses a method to analyze various phenomena by breaking down a method for estimation component pieces, making each piece work as a web service, and getting them to cooperate with one another as necessary. We also develop an earthquake-disaster estimation web application that can analyze seismic intensity, exposed population, lifelines, business establishments, goods supply and demand, and so on.

Using an exposed population, the period of business disruption at business establishments, the supply and demand balance of necessities, and an amount of exposure of administrative functions as impact indices, we use our method to analyze the change in impact indices at many epicenters exhaustively plotted in the metropolitan Tokyo area. As a result, the scenario of an earthquake with a great impact is quantified in light of the earthquake susceptibility of the ground, distribution of population, business establishments, administrative functions, and so on.