The Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program II began after the initial program in 2014–2018 [1], wherein comprehensive, multidisciplinary research was conducted to mitigate disasters related to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The second program introduced a new focus on improving disaster literacy in addition to the three main studies from the first program: understanding earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, developing methods for forecasting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and predicting related hazards. We further conducted five comprehensive studies on the following: 1) the Nankai Trough earthquake, 2) an earthquake just beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, 3) great earthquakes along the Kuril Trench, 4) major eruptions at Sakurajima Volcano, and 5) small but hazardous eruptions at active volcanoes. These studies were conducted in collaboration with researchers from various scientific fields, such as earth sciences, history, archaeology, human and social sciences, and engineering. Building on the active collaborations established during the first five-year program between researchers from different scientific fields, more advanced interdisciplinary research was conducted in the second program. The new findings from Program II also fostered international collaboration and recognition. Most results and new findings of Program II have already been published in various internationally recognized journals, significantly influencing the scientific community. The present special issue summarizes and compiles our findings in these published papers and reports, along with the ongoing research from the five years of Program II. We hope that this special issue will be valuable to researchers interested in multidisciplinary studies on the mitigation of disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and related phenomena.

References:

[1 ] Y. Tanioka, S. Yoshida, T. Ohminato, A. Kato, and N. Kamaya, “Special Issue on Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.15, No.2, p. 69, 2020. urlhttps://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2020.p0069

The Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program II is a nationwide collaborative research program on earthquakes and volcanic eruptions conducted with the cooperation of universities, national research institutes, and government agencies throughout Japan. This program originated from two independent prediction programs initiated in the ‘60s and ‘70s to respond to disasters caused by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, respectively. These prediction programs were originally aimed at predicting the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions based on precursor phenomena. Subsequently, both programs have shifted their focus to understanding the mechanisms and forecasting activities based on observational data and models. Given their many similarities in research infrastructure, the two programs were integrated in 2009. Since the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, the integrated program has further shifted to contributing to the mitigation of disasters caused by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions based on interdisciplinary research in the fields of disaster science, including not only seismology and volcanology, but also engineering, humanities, and social sciences. The research program introduced in this review was implemented for five years, from 2019 to 2023. A new research field that contributes to improving literacy for disaster resilience and an integrated research framework have been added to this program. This study summarizes the basic concept, results, and future challenges of this research program.

Long-term forecast of large earthquakes is an important application of earthquake science to promote earthquake preparedness of people and disaster mitigation. The Earthquake Long-Term Forecast Panel was newly organized as one of the program promotion panels under the 2nd Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program during 2019–2023. The panel has been promoting studies that advance long-term forecasts of large earthquakes by sharing research prospects and exchanging information on related research topics. The program emphasized developing new long-term forecast methods based on the observation data including geodetic and seismicity data and the physical and statistical models, which lead to not only probabilistic forecasts, but also the development of possible scenarios for major earthquakes at the present. In addition, paleoseismological studies in terms of geological and geomorphological studies as well as archaeological and historical studies were conducted. Some results of the earthquake occurrence history were reflected in the official long-term evaluation by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. It is evaluated that our study advanced under the program in the last five years. However, the 2024 M_JMA7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquake and other earthquakes that occurred in this program term have raised several problems in earthquake science and hazard mitigation, and it is important to continue and further develop our research in the next program.

The prediction of volcanic eruptions and eruption hazards is important to mitigate volcanic hazards. The purpose of the Volcano Program Promotion Panel in the Research Program on Earthquake and Volcanic Observations is to elucidate the conditions and logic of the event branch of volcanic activities, construct a transition model of volcanic activity, and promote research for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. During 2019–2023, submarine and remote-island volcanic eruptions were prominent. Additionally, terrestrial volcanic eruptions highlighted issues in volcanic disaster prevention. Significant progress was realized in material science research. The effects of water content, conduit size, and magma ascent rate on the magma supply systems and eruption explosiveness were evaluated. The relationship between the increase in phenocryst and decrease in eruption size was also elucidated, and the time evolution of the silicic magma system leading up to the caldera-forming eruption was elucidated using a new analytical method based on isotopes. The isotopic ratios of volcanic gases revealed the effects of magma foaming on shallow hydrothermal systems. The importance of rapid analysis of eruptions was highlighted, and magma supply systems and volcanic activity transitions were modeled. Remarkable progress was also made in geophysical observation research. An increase in the amplitude of volcanic tremors and a change in the epicenter location were detected, which were presumed to be caused by the rising of magma before the eruption. New observation techniques were actively introduced, and detailed magnetization structures and temporal changes were detected from aeromagnetic observations using uncrewed aerial vehicles. Distributed acoustic sensing observations were used to determine the epicenter of volcanic earthquakes and estimate the ground structure. Furthermore, seismic survey and ejecta analyses indicated the volume of deposits and magma production process in caldera-forming eruptions. Standardization of the volcanic activity index was promoted through applications of the index for multiple volcanoes as an objective method of volcanic activity evaluation. The addition of highly accurate information on the subsurface structure of volcanoes has advanced our understanding of the eruptive activity and processes. Through these results, the trial and verification of predictions based on the transition model of volcanic activity will be conducted in the following research plan.

Prior and real-time estimations of geohazards related to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are essential to mitigate disasters. This review discusses the results of the past five years through “the Second Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program (Earthquake and Volcano Hazard Reduction Research)” on the real-time and prior estimation of geohazard related to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Investigations have been conducted through cooperation among the research fields of seismology, volcanology, disaster prevention engineering, and social science, in conjunction with the practical services of on-site works to effectively provide advanced and real-time geohazard estimations to people. While remarkable results have been achieved and progress has been made in each research field, the issue remains of how to disseminate the results to society, mainly how to translate the information into disaster information and make it easier for the public to understand.

This study examines the current state of disaster prevention literacy research, focusing primarily on Japan. First, we review global research trends on disaster and literacy and Japanese studies on disaster prevention literacy, focusing on bibliometric analyses. Second, we explore the fundamental concept of disaster prevention literacy that originated in Japan. Finally, we qualitatively discuss features and challenges of disaster prevention literacy research, highlighting key research papers in Japan. In conclusion, we argue that the concept of disaster prevention literacy is not only crucial for enhancing educational materials for disaster risk reduction (DRR) programs and outreach activities related to scientific research such as seismology and volcanology, but is also increasingly regarded as a conceptual platform for co-creating DRR, bridging the existing gaps between natural and social sciences, and scientific and local knowledge involving the society.

Historical Resources and Archaeology Research Group, the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Prediction Researches is a collaboration of seismology, history, archaeology, and information science scholars to examine, analyze, and create databases of historical and archaeological materials that record information on earthquakes and other disasters. This study describes the creation of databases of historical earthquake information in earthquake historical documents and that of historical disaster information in buried cultural properties. Further, it elucidates the analyses of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes using GIS, historical earthquakes using chronicles, the 1804 Kisakata earthquake using historical documents and pictorial records, and disaster factors using this database.

The author reviews comprehensive assessment and mitigation strategies for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough, incorporating historical data, current research, and forward-looking strategies to enhance earthquake and tsunami preparedness. In the last five years since 2018, the Integrated Research Group for Megathrust Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough leveraged interdisciplinary approaches to model seismic wave propagation, assess tsunami inundation, estimate structural damage, and enhance stakeholder engagement through educational outreach and collaborative workshops. Here, the author focuses on the findings from various disciplines, including the analysis of past seismic events, current monitoring technologies, and future scenario planning. Additionally, the evolution of the understanding of megathrust earthquakes is introduced through detailed case studies, such as the 1662 Hyuga-nada earthquake, providing insights into the seismic and tsunami risks specific to the region. The possibility of recent advancements in understanding the interaction between slow and fast earthquakes is also focused on, which offers promising avenues for mitigating future seismic events. By linking historical data with cutting-edge research, there is a further need to significantly advance the field of earthquake and tsunami disaster science and effectively translate these findings into practical strategies for disaster risk reduction.

A new research group has been formed to enhance disaster countermeasures for imminent M9-class earthquakes along the Kuril Trench. One key area of focus is tsunami evacuation, crucial due to the significant human impact expected from the Kuril earthquake. The group has reported new findings and developments that identify weaknesses in anti-disaster plans, address gaps in measures, and propose new countermeasure tactics. Fundamental observations, field work, data analysis and accumulation, which are essential for future crustal monitoring, earthquake occurrence probability assessment, and hazard assessment, have also been conducted. The work breakdown structure (WBS) concept forms the foundation of the group’s strategy and the roles of each team. The WBS helps in recognizing expected outcomes, understanding the relationships among research agendas, and identifies missing elements in current research plans. Group research is well-suited for disaster-related issues in that it provides multifaceted, multilayered, and multitrack perspectives, allowing for mutual verification to avoid unexpected pitfalls in disaster countermeasures. Hazard and risk evaluation research and related social collaborative activities are key to enhancing disaster preparedness in this region.

The 1914 eruption with VEI 4 Plinian pumice falls and the lava flow at Sakurajima Volcano is the largest-scale eruption in Japan after the 20th century. From the uplift of the ground of Aira Caldera where the main magma reservoir of Sakurajima is located and long-term recurrence interval of VEI 4 eruption, a large-scale eruption is expected to occur on the volcano in the near future. For such a large-scale eruption, it is important to (1) understand the precursory activity, (2) forecast eruption, (3) evaluate hazards, and (4) improve disaster prevention literacy. Respectively, (1) the intrusion of magma induces elastic deformation and fracture of rock (volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake). This may be followed by an opening tensile crack. Evolution of magma intrusion may appear as a conjugate crack. (2) Magma intrusion rate is a key factor to forecast scale and type of eruption. Magma intrusion rate increased up to >10⁸ m³/day before the Plinian eruption. Very high seismicity of low-frequency earthquake follows VT earthquake swarm. (3) Simulation tools have been developed for various kinds of volcanic hazards. A key parameter is allocation of intrusive magma to tephra, pyroclastic flow, and lava flows. (4) Evacuation from volcanoes is an essential countermeasure against volcanic disaster risk. A large eruption, especially pumice fall, requires a wide alert zone. Since awareness of evacuation from the massive tephra fall is low in areas far from the volcano, workshops for residents were repeated to enhance awareness of evacuation from the massive tephra.

This study proposed a new blending approach for forecasting “senjo-kousuitai,” combining extrapolation-based nowcasting (EXT) and numerical weather prediction (NWP), to support early decision-making by municipalities regarding evacuation. A major deficiency in the short-term (1–2 h) operational forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency is underestimation of the precipitation area associated with senjo-kousuitai formation, which is mainly attributed to the EXT component. To address this problem, our blending approach emphasizes NWP using a cloud-resolving model for the 2-h forecast. A notable aspect of our approach involves incorporating a spatial maximum filter (MF) to account for spatial displacements between the EXT and the NWP outputs, replacing forecasted rainfall with the maximum value in the surrounding area. Compared with conventional blending methods, statistical verification of the results obtained using our proposed approach revealed marked improvements in both underestimation bias and probability of detection during the senjo-kousuitai formation stage. These findings highlight the potential of the MF-based approach for reducing forecast misses and facilitating timely municipal decision-making. The simplicity of the method also underscores its value as an urgently required disaster mitigation strategy against the increasing occurrence of senjo-kousuitai. However, the rise in false alarms, as a trade-off for fewer misses, implies an increase in the cost associated with protective actions. Although the proposed method entails increased costs, adopting this approach can be a cost-effective strategy for preserving lives by mitigating misses.

This study examines the pivotal role of the Turkish Red Crescent Communication Centre (KİMER) during the February 6, 2023, earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye—termed as the “disaster of the century.” Employing a cross-sectional descriptive epidemiological analysis, the research focuses on KİMER’s crisis communication efforts, analyzing the volume and nature of calls to KİMER’s Call Centre and assessing their impact on disaster management. Data extracted from KİMER’s database from February 6 to December 15, 2023, alongside operational reports and interviews with staff and volunteers, form the basis of both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Findings indicate KİMER addressed over 1.1 million requests through diverse channels, including call centers, social media, and chatbots, showcasing a high degree of adaptability and efficiency. Geographic analysis of requests underscores the direct correlation between disaster impact and assistance demand, highlighting the importance of targeted response strategies. The predominance of information-seeking calls reveals a critical need for timely, accurate communication during crises. The study emphasizes the efficacy of KİMER’s digital platforms and specialized support for vulnerable groups, suggesting enhancements in digital tool usage and geographically focused plans for future disaster management. Ultimately, this research underscores the significance of comprehensive, adaptable communication strategies in disaster response, offering insights for improving crisis management frameworks in Türkiye and potentially in similar contexts globally.

Disaster education is one of the practical and sustainable disaster mitigation efforts. Disaster education is ideally carried out by integrating formal education, family, and community to transfer knowledge and experience between these components. The delivery of disaster knowledge to these three components is still often dichotomized. Prospective teachers who will later convey disaster knowledge to their students must be trained through a disaster education model that accommodates this. The problem-based learning cycle-STEM-disaster model has been developed to integrate disaster education for prospective teachers with their families and environments through learning stages called Elaboration and Extension. Through qualitative experimental research on prospective teacher students, it is known that the model can increase the ideality and effectiveness of implementing disaster education.

In urban developments, inherently flood-prone areas are often developed to pursue economic benefits within land constraints. This trend has been observed worldwide, particularly in fast-growing developing countries, but has also historically occurred in developed nations, resulting in concerns about the safe development paradox and underestimation of flood risk. If these circumstances are persistently entrenched and difficult to improve, urban development in inherently flood-prone areas could be an irreversible bottleneck to sustainable urban development. This paper examines flood risk perception in the Arakawa River downstream area in Tokyo by analyzing land prices from 2005 to 2024. Over these 20 years, the official flood hazard map was legally set at the design flood level in 2005 and enhanced to the probable maximum flood level in 2015. The analysis showed statistically significant land price decline effects due to both design flood risk and probable maximum flood risk, regardless of inundation rank. This result confirmed that flood risk has been well perceived by society and residents at least over the 20 years in the area. Further analysis suggested that even before 2015, land prices significantly reflected probable maximum flood risk, likely due to past experiences. However, the 2015 legal revision of the flood hazard map amplified land price decline effects in areas with high probable maximum flood risk (above 5.0 meters of inundation). The results indicate that hazard maps can serve as effective disaster risk information tools to support sustainable urban development.

The Indian subcontinent has recently seen an increasingly high incidence of natural disasters, mainly cyclones resulting in loss of lives and property and damage to livelihood. Risk is defined by the negative effects of interactions between exposure, hazards, and vulnerable situations. The majority of the existing vulnerability indices emphasize social and economic vulnerability and often exclude the significance of health vulnerability. The study aims to compute a Health Vulnerability Index (HVI) in the research area of five cyclone-prone community development blocks in the Purba Medinipur district of West Bengal, India: Ramnagar-I, Ramnagar-II, Contai-I, Deshapran, and Khejuri-II. A three-phase methodology was used to develop the final disaster risk model. Phase 1: extensive literature review and identification of the relevant indicators: vulnerable population, disabled population, under-five mortality rate, unmet bed demand, unmet doctor demand, poor households, incidence of tuberculosis, vaccination gap, and measles vaccination gap, Phase 2: a two-stage dimension reduction statistical method to identify the weighing of the indicators, Phase 3: creates the final disaster risk by Risk = Exposure × Hazard × Vulnerability. Khejuri-II has the highest index of health vulnerability, which coupled with poor infrastructural facilities results in a high corresponding risk. Ramnagar-I being a hotbed of tourism and economic activities in the area poses the lowest HVI and hence the lowest risk. This proposed index which provides a judicious reflection of health vulnerability may serve as a policy and implementation tool to facilitate capacity building to improve resilience in the cyclone-affected areas.

Enhancing disaster response, defense, and adaptation capabilities is an important way to reduce disaster risks and promote regional and urban sustainable development. However, the frequent occurrence of natural disasters and rapid urbanization in China have led to the arduous and urgent task of urban disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC), this study establishes an evaluation index system for assessing urban disaster resilience in Hebei Province, encompassing four key aspects: economic, social, environmental, and infrastructural resilience. This study assesses the urban disaster resilience of 11 prefectural-level cities in Hebei Province and analyzes their spatial distribution. The results show that the cities in Hebei Province are generally in a state of medium-low resilience. However, the resilience indices vary greatly across cities, with urban disaster resilience showing obvious spatial differentiation. This study provides a basis for further evaluation of urban resilience in the development of dynamic and open regional systems.

Upon further review of this article, the authors noticed an error on page 1008 that they would like to correct. This error occurred unintentionally in the process of extracting information from the field notes. The correction does not change any of the conclusions.

Now reads

All three mosques are affiliated with the Toyama Muslim Center, a religious corporation.

Should read

The Al-Faruq Mosque is operated by the Toyama Muslim Center, a general corporation; the Toyama Mosque is a religious corporation with which the Kanazawa Mosque is affiliated.

The authors regret this error, and this error has now been corrected in the PDF version of the article.