Journal of Disaster Research
Online ISSN : 1883-8030
Print ISSN : 1881-2473
ISSN-L : 1881-2473
Special Issue on Integrated Study on Mitigation of Multimodal Disasters Caused by Ejection of Volcanic Products: Part 2
Estimating the Volcanic Ash Fall Rate from the Mount Sinabung Eruption on February 19, 2018 Using Weather Radar
Magfira SyarifuddinSatoru OishiRatih Indri HapsariJiro ShiokawaHanggar Ganara MawandhaMasato Iguchi
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2019 年 14 巻 1 号 p. 135-150

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This paper presents a theoretical method for estimating volcanic ash fall rate from the eruption of Sinabung Volcano on February 19, 2018 using an X-band multi-parameter radar (X-MP radar). The X-MP radar was run in a sectoral range height indicator (SRHI) scan mode for 6° angular range (azimuth of 221°–226°) and at an elevation angle of 7° to 40° angular range. The distance of the radar is approximately 8 km in the Southeastern direction of the vent of Mount Sinabung. Based on a three-dimensional (3-D) image of the radar reflectivity factor, the ash column height was established to be more than 7.7 km, and in-depth information on detectable tephra could be obtained. This paper aims to present the microphysical parameters of volcanic ash measured by X-MP radar, which are the tephra concentration and the fall-out rate. These parameters were calculated in a two-step stepwise approach microphysical model using the scaled gamma distribution. The first step was ash classification based on a set of training data on synthetic ash and its estimated reflectivity factor. Using a naïve Bayesian classification, the measured reflectivity factors from the eruption were classified into the classification model. The second step was estimating the volcanic ash concentration and the fall-out rate by power-law function. The model estimated a maximum of approximately 12.9 g·m-3 of ash concentration from the coarse ash class (mean diameter Dn= 0.1 mm) and a minimum of approximately 0.8 megatons of volcanic ash mass accumulation from the eruption.

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