Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

抄録

In Japan, flood disasters caused by record-breaking heavy rainfall frequently cause significant damages. It is also great concern that heavy rainfall may increase and occur more frequently due to global warming. In July 2013, a heavy rainfall event caused record-flooding of the Kakehashi River in Ishikawa Prefecture. In this study, pseudo global warming (PGW) experiments were implemented for the heavy rainfall in 1998 and 2013 around the Kakehashi River basin. Based on the results of PGW simulations, rainfall with different return periods were generated. Runoff analyses and inundation simulations were carried out by forcings with multiple return periods, and the results were used to estimate the economic losses due to flood inundation. Expected values of the economic losses were calculated using two methods for multiple return periods. Differences between the two expected values indicates the importance of the weighting method for the result of each return period. In addition, variations of spatial distribution of houses and firms in a city (i.e., urban structure) were simulated using a computable urban economics (CUE) model for the area of middle-lower reach of the Kakehashi River basin to examine its impact on economic loss due to flooding. In the simulation using the CUE model, a more severe flood inundation risk and an additional insurance burden for general households were added, and possible variations of urban structure were estimated around the lower part of the Kakehashi River basin. Under the more severe risk condition, relocation proceeded from higher risk areas to safer areas, and possible economic losses decreased in the target area. This result indicates that proper recognition of risk can reduce flood damages. On the other hand, there were small variations in economic losses under the condition with the additional flood insurance burden.