Designing Airport Capacity for the Evacuation of Parked Aircraft During a Large-Scale Eruption

抄録

This study proposes a volcanic ash (VA) risk alert system for airports and analyzes the capacity for accommodating evacuation aircraft during a large-scale eruption of Mount Sakurajima. The system classifies airports into four groups (A, B, C, and D) based on factors, such as distance from the erupting volcano and VA spread speed. A crisis response system for VA is developed, which can recommend suitable actions for airports based on their classification. The system is applied to simulate a large-scale eruption of Mount Sakurajima, similar to the An-ei great eruption of 1779. Three scenarios are defined: Case 1, where VA affects all of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Chugoku; Case 2, where VA reaches southern Kyushu and parts of Shikoku and Kansai, while Chugoku remains unaffected; and Case 3, where VA extends to most of Kansai and Chubu, and the southern part of the Capital Region, affecting major airports in Kansai, Chubu, and the Capital Region. The results show that in Cases 1 and 2, the total evacuation capacity exceeds the number of aircraft requiring relocation, indicating no capacity expansion is necessary. However, Case 3 presents a challenge, as a significant number of aircraft cannot be assigned evacuation airports and some airports experience excessive aircraft congestion, leading to capacity constraints in physical airport capacity and air traffic control operations. These findings underscore the need for improvements in these capacity issues and provide policy implications for future preparedness.