Tsunami Hazard and Exposure Assessment in Metropolitan Lima-Callao Under Historical and Plausible Seismic Scenarios

抄録

The impact of natural hazards can be effectively mitigated through preliminary assessments that combine geospatial and modeling approaches. Among these, tsunami exposure mapping plays a crucial role in coastal risk evaluation. This study develops a methodological framework for tsunami exposure assessment by integrating numerical simulation and geospatial analysis. Two tsunamigenic seismic scenarios were considered: (i) a historically documented event and (ii) a plausible large-magnitude earthquake off the Pacific coast of Lima, Peru. Tsunami propagation and inundation were simulated using the TUNAMI-N2 model to generate detailed inundation maps that delineate the spatial extent and inundation depth. The temporal evolution of tsunami impact distribution was analyzed using arrival-time maps and synthetic tide gauges, strategically located along the coastline to record wave amplitude variations over time. The population exposed to tsunami hazard was quantified using national census demographic data, while critical buildings were identified from official geospatial databases. This integration provides refined insights into tsunami hazard dynamics and supports evidence-based coastal risk management and urban growth.