論文ID: JE20180007
Background: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a common malignancy in northeastern Thailand. Over the last 4 decades, several policies have been implemented for its prevention, but there has been no update on the trends and relative survival (RS). Our aim was (a) to perform a statistical assessment of the incidence trends of CCA and project future trends, and (b) to estimate relative survival.
Methods: All cases of CCA diagnosed from 1989 through 2013 were abstracted from the Khon Kaen Cancer Registry (KKCR). A jointpoint regression model was used to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and to project future trends. We also calculated RS.
Results: There were 11,711 cases of CCA. The incidence rate increased with an APC of 1.79% (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.2 to 3.8) from 1989 through 2002, and decreased with an APC of −6.09% (95% CI, −8.2 to −3.9) from 2002 through 2013. The projected incidence of CCA should stable over the next 10 years, albeit higher than the world rate. The respective 5-year RS for both sexes for age groups of 30–40, 41–45, 51–60, and 61–98 years was 22.3% (95% CI, 16.8–29.5), 14.3% (95% CI, 12.0–17.0), 8.6% (95% CI, 7.8–10.0), and 7.2% (95% CI, 6.4–8.0).
Conclusion: The incidence rate of CCA has decreased since 2002, representing a real decline in the risk of CCA. The incidence of CCA is projected to stabilize by 2025. The survival of patients with CCA remains poor.
