Projecting the Minimum Size of HIV Infection and AIDS Epidemic in China

抄録

At present, intravenous drug users (IVDUs) comprise the largest risk group to develop acquired immunodefeciency syndrome (AIDS) in China, and their sex partners seem the second largest risk group. It is necessary to understand long-term trends in the spread of human immunodeficience virus (HIV) among IVDUs and their sex partners and the trends about AIDS cases development for disease prevention and control. The compartment model was used to project the number of HIV infectious individuals and the number of AIDS patients for the next 10 years. The model assumes that transmission is concentrated among IVDUs and their sex partners according to the current situation. The model estimes that by the year 2002, the number of HIV positives will reach 2, 891, AIDS cumulative cases to 1, 124, out of which 776 will have died of the disease ; if we include oral drug users who also have experienced intravenous drug use, HIV positives will be 3, 304, AIDS cases 1, 285, death 887; if unsurveyed IVDUs are included, HIV positives can be estimated to be 4, 129, AIDS cases 1, 606, death 1, 109; with increasing knowledge about AIDS, if persons at risk stop their risk behaviour are doubled, HIV positives will be 2, 496, AIDS cases 1, 024, death 714. these conclusions indicate that prevention efforts among male IVDUs and their female sex partners must be appropriately directed.