Abstract
This study designed and examined a supply model for Japanese cedar sawlogs using econometric methods longitudinally on data from 1960 to 2019. We constructed a vector error correction model based on the unit root and cointegration tests to consider stationarity in time series data. The results show that the long-run parameters satisfied the expected signs and were inelastic. These parameters indicate that the increase in planted forest inventory is important for the increase in sawlog supply. The estimation results for the short-run parameters indicate that there are short-term adjustment processes among variables related to sawlog supply. The sawlog price for Japanese cedar has been on a statistically significant downward trend since 1974, mainly due to the strong yen caused by the shift to a floating exchange rate system in Japan and to the increase in sawlog supply as the cedar forests created after World War II shifted to the utilization stage.
