2001 Volume 52 Issue 8 Pages 729-736
The prefectural welfare budget for the aged continues to increase in the growing aging society, and the rate of increase is expected to be accelerated by the nursing insurance system which was introduced in April 2000. Then, it should be pointed out that no significant study has yet been made on how much the newly introduced system affects the local economy. Taking up as the model case the prefectures of Tochigi, Kyoto and Fukuoka where the population ratio of the senior citizens is very close to the national average, we attempted to work out the economic effect of the nursing insurance system. As the basis of our estimate, the 1990 inter-industry relation table drawn up by the respective prefectures was referred to along with the market scales of the nursing service published by the Ministry of Health and Welfare for 2000 and 2010 respectively. The employment thereof was also estimated. Our estimate of the market scale of the nursing service for the year 2000 resulted 68.4 billion yen, 90.5 billion yen and 171 billion yen in Tochigi, Kyoto and Fukuoka respectively. The economic effect thereof is estimated to be respectively 51.3 billion yen, 80.1 billion yen and 178.7 billion, and the related employment to be produced would come to the level of 8, 900, 12, 600 and 25, 600 respectively, of which the number of people required for the nursing service was 5, 600, 7, 400 and 14, 000. The size of the nursing service market should increase by 35.7 billion yen, 53 billion yen and 96.7 billion yen from the year 2000 to the year 2010. The economic effect should be increased by 26.8 billion yen, 46.9 billion yen and 155.5 billion yen, and the employment including the area of the economic effect should grow by 4, 700, 7, 400 and 18, 100 respectively. The labor population required for the nursing service, i.e., the number of people engaged in the area of nursing service, is estimated to increase by 2, 900, 4, 300 and 7, 900 respectively.
