Abstract
There are few studies that have examined the aspects influencing the effects of a
long-term care prevention program. In this study, we investigated the influence of the
physical function at the end of an exercise class on the effects of a long-term care prevention
program. Participants were 23 community-dwelling elderly in the “A” ward of the Tokyo
Metropolitan. All participants completed an exercise class. Their certification of the longterm
care insurance （certified or not） was investigated at 1.5 to 2.0 year after the class.
Regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between physical fitness levels at
the end of the class and the certification. In addition, the 5-m usual walking time was strongly
associated with the certification （odds ratio 2.853, 95％ confidence interval: 1.094－ 7.440, P
＝ 0.032）. According to the ROC curve analysis, the cut-off value of the 5-m usual walking
time was revealed to be 4.96 sec. The walking ability is considered to be a strong predictor of
future ADL and the risk of dependence on long-term care services. This study indicates that
to elongate the healthy life expectancy, the walking speed should be maintained under 1 m/
sec.
