地震はいつ起こるのか : 大森房吉(1868-1923)と「気象学的地震学」

抄録

This paper investigates a feature of early modern Japanese seismology from the viewpoint of what I call "meteorological seismology." Fusakichi Omori (1868-1923) is one of the founders of Japanese modern seismology. The seismological research of his period has been described by scholars such as Yoichiro Fujii(1967) and Takahiro Hagiwara (1982) as "statistical seismology." In this paper, I would like to focus on the meteorological studies of earthquakes from the late 19^ <th> century to the interwar period, which are not well known. Hoping to contribute to the question of "when do the earthquakes break out," Omori, with some knowledge in meteorology, analyzed the relationship between earthquakes and meteorological phenomena, using atmospheric pressure in particular. His "meteorological approach" had its origin in his instructors' era since they regarded meteorology as their model in both disciplinary aim and methodology. Some of Omori's colleagues followed his tactics seriously even after the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, although it is said that after this earthquake there was a methodological turn to basic (geo) physics. I argue that the desire to predict when the earthquakes occur manifested itself in "meteorological seismology" and would like to shed some light on the environment in which this research program subsequently evolved.