世界の人口長期予測から見たエネルギー需要再検

抄録

The auther had presented the prospecting procedure of long rangeover 100 years-world energy demand derived from population in 1994. This report is on the revising results of such prospecting procedure.
This procedure depends on the prospect of world population, and world population has been prospected till 2150 by World Bank. So this procedure can be used to prospect the energy demand till 2150 theoretically.
It has been found that the relation between rate of population growth and personal energy consumption of that year is represented by the quadratic equation. Also it is found that this relation has been kept about 20 years. Therefore certain personal energy consumption is calculated from the rate of population growth of the same year.
In this report it is shown that the curve of quadratic relation is represented by the part of the ellipse, and developing path from underdevelping area to advanced area goes along such elliptical orbit.
Energy demand of world and 6 continents from 1995 to 2100 is calculated. World energy demand in 2100 will be between 440×10⁸ and 550×10⁸ TCE.
To simulate the developing path from underdeveloping area to advaned area, a part of ellipse is used. Such elliptical curve will be powerfull tool not only for prospecting energy demand but considering the release of CO₂ which is thought one of materials having large effect on environment.