Development of Gray System Model on Energy Consumption and Emissions of Air Pollutants and GHGs in China (II)

An Emission Model of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂

抄録

This paper presents estimates of emissions of three major air pollutants and GHGs of China: sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO_x) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) for each of 30 provinces, 60 energy demand sectors and 22 fuel types covered by the Gray Forecast Model for China's Energy Consumption (CGEn model) developed by part I Under the assumptions of the future coal sulfur contents, desulphurization efficiency and emission factors of NO_x and CO₂. Data for 1995 are presented, as well as future projection until 2030 with 5 year span by two, high and low economic growth, scenarios. The SO₂ emissions are projected to increase to 34, 200Gg and 25, 600Gg for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030 from 23, 300Gg in 1995. Emissions of NO_x are projected to increase to 25, 200Gg and 18, 400Gg for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030 from 8, 770Gg in 1995. CO₂ emissions are projected to reach 10, 200Tg and 7, 590Tg for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030 from 4, 080Tg in 1995. The SO₂ emissions are projected to increase to the peak 34, 200Gg in 2030 for Scenario 1 and to the peak 30, 200Gg in 2015 for Scenario 2 from 23, 300Gg in 1995. The NOx emissions are projected to increase to the peak 25, 100Gg in 2030 for Scenario 1 and to the peak 20, 100Gg in 2025 for Scenario 2 from 8, 770Gg in 1995. The CO₂ emissions are projected to increase to the peak 10, 200Tg in 2030 for Scenario 1 and to the peak 8, 200Tg in 2020 for Scenario 2 from 4, 080Gg in 1995. The emissions of all three species are concentrated in the populated and industrialized provinces: Sichuan, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shanxi and Hebei. As a base case in this paper part I and II, without consideration of low NO_x combustion, NO_x removal and fuel switching, the future emission factors of NO_x and CO₂ are fixed as present state. The emission reduction effect of these options will be discussed in the following part of this work.