人口長期予測から見た世界エネルギー需要予測手法の精度

抄録

The auther has developed the procedure to forecast world energy demand for about 100 years. The procedure depended on long-range prospect of world population such as published by World Bank and personal energy consumption published by United Nations.
One of the week point of this procedure is that the accracy of this procedure has not been certified yet, because there is no comparable such long-range prospection of world energy demand.
Recently long-range prospects of world energy demand till 2000 have been published by WEC and Institute of Energy and Economics Japan. At this time these prospects are compared and it is found that there is no significant discrepancy among these three prospects.
And also the accuracy of this forcasting procedure is examined by comparison with actual energy consumptions from 1970 till 1997 and the prospect derived from this procedure. And it is found that actual consumptions have followed close after data of the prospect.
Moreover it is found the discrepancy between data of prospect and actual consumption has appeared by the price change of crude oil.
Example of applications of this forecasting procedure on present economic situation of Japan and on Kyoto protocol for environment protection are described.