An analysis of transportation demand on GMS network in consideration of error factors

抄録

Mekong River is an important river in Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). To clarify the necessity of developing the Mekong River as a part of the transportation on GMS network, logistic simulation to forecast the demand of freight transport is required. However, detailed data for logistics simulation is not available. Therefore, purpose of this study is to develop the logistic simulation method for demand forecasting of GMS transportation network in consideration of the limitation of the available data and their reliability. Basic concept of this study is following points; 1) GMS area is expressed as a network model and a minimum cost flow model has been applied to find the route of cargo transportation. 2) Cargo volume between cities and the transportation cost on each route are estimated based on the available data. 3) Data used in the estimation is not defined as a fixed value but as an indeterminate one. 4) By using the law of the error propagation and the Monte Carlo simulation, influences of the errors are calculated quantitatively. By comparing the simulation results and the actual data, the validity of the proposed method is evaluated. Moreover, the robustness to develop the Mekong River is discussed by using the proposed simulation method. As a result, the route of Mekong River between Jinghong and Chiang Rai is an effective route to develop for freight transport in Greater Mekong Subregion area.