Assessing the location and frequency of potential collisions is important to prevent collision accidents. The collision causation probability, which is an index of a collision frequency model, effectively expresses the collision possibility statistically. While it had assessed ship traffic with a certain encounter angle such as in traffic separation routes, it has become capable of assessing ship traffic in congested waters corresponding to encounter angles.
This paper presents the estimation of the collision causation probability depending on the waters and encounters, such as overtaking, head-on, and crossing situations, using a collision frequency model. The results include the comparison to a conventional probability and current trend depending on the waters and encounters.
