海上交通事故の研究-VIII : 航行船舶と浮標及び操業中の漁船の衝突確率について

抄録

Collisions of vessels with buoys are surveyed in Uraga Suido, Irago Suido, Akashi Kaikyo, Bisan Seto East Region and Kurusima Kaikyo in five years from 1978 to 1982. Collisions of vessels with fishing boats under work are also surveyed in Tomogasima Suido, Bisan Seto West Region and Kurusima Kaikyo in four years from 1978 to 1981. The number of geometrical collisions with buoys or drifting boats, Ng, is calculated with traffic-related quantities as Ng=∫_T∫_Sρ_a・ρ_b・D・V ds dt where ρ_a, ρ_b, D, V, s and t are the density of drifting boats, the density of vessels, the collision diameter, the speed, the area and the time respectively. Calculation of the probability of collisions, P, the rate of Ng and the number of collisions, N, is made and it gives logP -3.7±0.4 for collisions with buoys and logP -4.7±0.3 for collisions with fishing boats.