50 km競歩競技メダリストのレースペース解析を利用したペース設計

抄録

This study aimed to assess pacing profiles of racewalkers who won medals for 50-km racewalking at the summer Olympic Games and World Championship by the International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF). The pacing profiles were consequently used to determine the finish times associated with high probabilities of winning gold medals, design general mathematical models based on pacing profiles, and examine the extent of fit of these models with the best records for both the events. We fit polynomial approximation as well as exponential and logarithmic functions to split time for every 5 km, obtained earlier from the results of both the events. We subsequently calculated the posteriori probability of winning a gold medal with the Bayes theorem and designed general mathematical models using the most suitable pacing profiles. Finally, these models were fit to the best record for both the events. The following results were obtained: 1) the quadratic function was the highest value of the fit, 2) the posteriori probability of the causal relationship between the finish time of the best rank and the gold medalist was the highest, 3) all the general mathematical models designed using the three hypotheses were significant, and 4) the race pace estimated by this general mathematical model also fit well with the world record. The design method utilized in this study for the general mathematical model and its applications are expected to be useful in racewalking and other events where the race pace design and relevant methods are essential for winning.