Probabilistic Assessment Model for Coincidence of Earthquake Damage to Collocated Lifelines

Abstract

Earthquake damages to collocated lifeline facilities within a certain distance cause physical damage spread as well as conflict in repair works. In order to avoid such negative effects, this study aims to develop a probabilistic model to evaluate the potential risk of coincidence of damage to different lifeline facilities. First, occurrence rates of coincidence of damage to two different systems are derived assuming the uniform, independent and random occurrence of damage. Next, the basic model is extended to deal with non-uniform occurrence of damage depending on the spatial distribution of earthquake ground intensities and that of vulnerability of lifeline facilities. Examples for the Tokyo metropolitan area are shown to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model.