緊急地震速報の震源情報を用いた地震動強度予測の不確定性に関する考察

抄録

In Japan, “Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)” has been put into operation for first response prior to the arrival of strong motions. However, the uncertainties of the provided information are still in problem for practice of emergency decision making. This study evaluates the error propagation from the estimated seismic source parameters (earthquake magnitude, focal depth and epicenter) to the predicted seismic intensities (PGV and JMA seismic intensities) in an analytical form based on the attenuation law and several conversion formula. Evidence-based approach has been also employed. Probability distributions of realistic seismic intensity conditional on the estimated seismic intensity are modeled on the basis of EEW records actually issued by Japan Meteorological Agency.