地震火災時のリアルタイム避難誘導における未覚知火災の不確実性を考慮した避難経路の最適化

抄録

After an earthquake, real-time evacuation guidance, which guides inhabitants to safe site from danger area based on fire information, is important as an emergency measure against simultaneous fires. In this study, we optimized a realtime route considering incompleteness of fire information. First, we constructed the stochastic model called “evacuation probability”, which is the probability that evacuee can reach evacuation site without encountering an undetected fire. Second, we maximize an evacuation probability on a real-time route under condition of securing a specified value of “safe margin of evacuation”, which means maximum tolerance on a deviation between a forecasted fire speed and an actual one. Finally, we discussed characteristics of the route with visualizing and analyzing results of simulations.