地震による直接被害額のリアルタイム推計に関する研究

抄録

The aim of this study is to present a real-time estimation method of economic values of direct stock damages caused by major earthquakes in Japan. The result will contribute to both government and private sectors for their decision making, particularly for budget allocation. First, we develop a simple but evidence-based model for estimating stock losses explained by an earthquake hazard factor and an exposure factor, i.e., seismic intensity and the existing stocks. Second, we carefully check the model specification, estimation and performance so as to be soundly applied to realtime assessment of future earthquake events. Finally, we develop a methodology of exhibiting estimated losses in a 250-meter meshed plane of an afflicted area.