豪雨災害による局地激甚災害指定の可能性評価

-2021年7月から8月にかけて島根県の被害報を用いた日次解析-

抄録

Natural disasters cause the loss of physical assets in the affected areas such as housing, social infrastructure, and industry. The evaluation of the physical loss is generally based on an actual conditions survey. And it adopts the estimation method using the damage rate by region and the building unit price per tsubo etc. when evaluating the loss amount of a huge number of houses and business establishments. In this study, we evaluate the possibility of regional serious disaster designation in the heavy rain disaster using the actual value of house damage by following procedure: 1) propose an estimation method using socio-demographic data, 2) apply the method to the daily analysis of the heavy rain disaster that occurred in Shimane Prefecture from July to August 2021, and 3) verify the results of the analysis. Finally, based on the analysis results obtained, we discuss the prospects and challenges for early determination of regional severe disaster designation.