水害避難へのTradable Permitsの導入に関する一考察

―住民の避難意向を反映したリアルタイムな避難制御に向けて―

抄録

If many people try to evacuate simultaneously in highly inhabited area, heavy traffic may occur at the bottlenecks such as bridges, and the evacuation may fail to complete orderly. According to the previous survey, people living in the eastern Tokyo, which is known for flood-prone and densely populated area, do not necessarily realize these risks unique to large cities. Therefore, evacuation control by the government or local community is needed to realize the citizen’s safe evacuation. In the field of economics, a method called “tradable permits” is used to control the people’s demands under the external diseconomies’ situation. In this paper, with applying one of the “tradable permits” models, which has been suggested in transportation field, to flood evacuation, we discuss the possibility of the introduction of the method.