Climate Effect on Supply and Market Price Stability of Rice in Bangladesh: Assessment of Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

抄録

This study aimed to predict stability of rice supply and market price in facing food security challenges. It develops supply and demand model to predict with scenarios of AR5 of the IPCC. Fluctuation of modern and local varieties yield during Aman and Boro seasons is higher in RCP6.0 compared to RCP8.5. Volatility of consumption and price is found in RCP6.0 and SSP2 as well as RCP8.5 and SSP3, but price and consumption is relatively stable in RCP8.5 and SSP3. The simulation result suggests that developing temperature-resilient Aman cultivar and ensuring irrigation facilities in the Boro season are necessary in future.