2021 年 23 巻 p. 1-17
The 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan affected imports and exports of agri-food products. Following the disasters, the implementation of international surveillance measures on exports of agri-food products and the restrictions on domestic production resulted in a decrease of exports and an increase in the level of imports. While restrictions were gradually lifted, levels of imports and exports did not adjust immediately as consumers were reluctant to consume products from afflicted regions. We examine Japan’s agri-food exports and imports for the presence of structural breaks to endogenously determine whether there were any permanent post-2011 changes in the evolution of the time series of trade flows. We use the endogenous structural break literature and examine 2-digit trade series for the presence of up to 3 structural changes in the series’ trends. Results indicate non-uniform post-2011 level and trend changes for both imports and exports of agri-food products.
