Impacts of Decreasing Ukrainian Wheat Supply, Agricultural Investments, and Labor Force on Global Wheat Market

Abstract

This study examines how decreasing wheat production and exports in 2022/23 and 2023/24, and agricultural knowledge & innovation systems and labor force in Ukraine, due to Russian aggression against Ukraine, will impact global wheat markets by considering future climate change. The simulation results show that the decrease in wheat production and exports, agricultural knowledge & innovation systems, and agricultural labor force in Ukraine will impact the global wheat market. This study concludes that the early recovery of agricultural knowledge & innovation systems, and the agricultural labor force in Ukraine will contribute to stabilizing international wheat price in the long term.