Uncertainty Analysis Method for Estimating Wave Parameters Based on Ship Responses

(3rd Report- Application to short-crested wave and uncertainty assessment of stress response)

Abstract

　The paper proposes a method, SWSE-LNPCA, to assess uncertainty in wave parameters for container ship design and safety. It introduces Lognormal Principal Component Analysis (LNPCA) to handle non-normal distributions in transfer functions, addressing the limitations of previous techniques. Furthermore, by introducing a directional distribution function, the method was extended for application to short wave crest irregular waves, and a new approach for assessing the uncertainty of stress response at arbitrary locations on the ship hull was proposed. By applying this method to real ship loading uncertainties, the study validates its effectiveness in estimating wave parameters' uncertainty, crucial for enhancing vessel safety and performance amid increasing container ship sizes and maritime cargo movement.