日本における都市圏の人口規模と都市圏内の人口分布の変動との関係―郊外の多様性に着目した分析―

抄録

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between metropolitan size and the population redistribution pattern within metropolitan areas in Japan, in the period following 1965. The procedure for the analysis is as follows. First, by using the dichotomy of the central city and its suburbs, an average relationship in population growth between the two is analyzed. Next, the changes in the degree of population concentration among suburban municipalities as well as the changes in the population growth of individual suburban municipalities are analyzed. Finally, the above results are summarized, and the relationship between metropolitan size and the population redistribution pattern within metropolitan areas is discussed. In this paper, the Standard Metropolitan Employment Area (SMEA) — advocated by Yamada and Tokuoka — are used to delineate the metropolitan areas. The results of the analyses are summarized as follows.

First, from the analysis using the dichotomy of the central cities and their suburbs in terms of population growth, it was confirmed that the larger the metropolitan size, the faster and larger is the population dispersion.

Second, the following results were obtained from the analysis that considered the various trends in suburban municipalities. The dispersal of population initially advanced until 1995. During that period, a tendency was observed whereby the equalization of the population density distribution progressed in larger SMEAs, and the degree of inequality of population density distribution was greater in smaller SMEAs.

Moreover, a result similar to that obtained in previous research was observed as a relationship between metropolitan size and the population redistribution pattern within metropolitan areas — population dispersion had advanced earlier, was on a larger scale, and was spatially wider with an increase in the size of the metropolitan area. Furthermore, by taking into account the variations in suburban municipalities in order to understand the spatial range as being influenced by population dispersal, it became possible to examine the spread of a sector as well as its distance from a central city. This leads to the conclusion that the sector that witnesses a growth in population is narrow in the smaller metropolitan areas.

Further, an observation of the trend from 1995-2000 in the large metropolitan areas revealed that suburban municipalities that recorded increasing trends in population reduction exhibited a tendency towards a concentration of population in the suburbs. This is a trend that is observed in small-and medium-sized metropolitan areas. If Japan continues its population decline in the near future, there is a possibility that the experience of small-and medium-sized metropolitan areas will precede that of large metropolitan areas in the future process of population redistribution within a metropolitan area.

As mentioned above, in this paper, it is possible to present some interesting findings that go beyond the scope of existing research — findings about the relationship between metropolitan size and the population redistribution pattern within metropolitan areas — by taking into consideration the diversity among suburban municipalities. However, the findings in this paper are restricted to the quantitative aspect of the process of change in population redistribution. Therefore, it will be necessary for future studies to verify a concrete process that leads to such a change. For example, there is considered to be a difference in the process of formation of a metropolitan area based on its population size. In order to verify this point, it will be important to explore the relationship between population growth and the change in the member of residents in municipalities within metropolitan areas. This issue will be the subject of future research.