Abstract
Purpose: To help frame long-range programs for education, research, and clinics on bridges and dentures, we estimated the numbers of these prosthetic appliances that will be needed in the future.
Methods: People of age 65 and above, including dependent elderly, were investigated. The average numbers of these appliances per person were estimated by regression analysis based on survey reports of dental diseases. Several regression lines were corrected so that mutual intersections would not occur between age groups and the estimated value would not exceed each upper limit. The total numbers of these appliances in the future were calculated from the estimated average numbers and population projections.
Results: It was projected that the numbers of bridges and dentures used by the elderly would increase 2.0 times (2.2-1.1 times, by 95% confidence interval) and 1.5 times (1.8-1.0 times) in 20 years, respectively, and plateau during the subsequent 10 years. The older the age group was, the higher these rates of increase would become. The numbers of bridges and dentures for dependent elderly people were also estimated to increase 2.7 times (3.2-1.0 times) and 1.8 times (2.2-1.0 times) in 25 years, respectively.
Conclusions: We will be faced with the importance of dental education, research, and clinics on bridges and dentures for the elderly and dependent elderly people.
