空中待機と地上待機のコストを考慮した出発制御時刻

抄録

Congested airspace causes flight delays, which result in extra fuel burn, extra CO₂ emissions, and additional workload for air traffic controllers in charge. Unlike road vehicles, once airborne, aircraft cannot stop in the air and turn off their engines. When the airspace of the arrival airport is going to be congested, however, airport can be delayed before their takeoff at the departure airport. Such traffic flow control, often referred to as ground holding, has been implemented in many countries already, with Japan being no exception. Currently, when flights are expected to be delayed in the air for more than a certain time (called buffer here), the ground holding program assigns delayed departure times. If there are no uncertainties in departure time and flight time, the optimal buffer can be easily determined. In reality, however, late passengers, for instance, can delay the departure. This research considers the uncertainties in departure time and enroute flight time to determine the optimal buffer applied by the ground holding program. Adopting values used by other researchers, the authors evaluate the cost of ground delay, airborne delay, and the cost of lost capacity, to determine the total cost of delay which is used as the metric for determining the optimal buffer. Results from Monte Carlo simulations show that there exist an optimal buffer for each traffic flow queue, but robustness can be achieved by implementing a sub-optimal buffer depending on the overall congestion only. Directions for further study and discussions are also presented.