飛行時間の機上予測の不確かさのモデリングとその時間管理への応用

抄録

In this study, a model of uncertainty of estimated time of arrival on a cruise route is derived, and its effectiveness for ground-based 4D trajectory management is demonstrated. Uncertainty of estimated time of arrival inevitably increases because of fluctuations in meteorological conditions, even though the Mach number, flight altitude and direction are controlled constant. Actual flight data and numerical weather forecasts are processed to obtain a large collection of flight and meteorological conditions and flight time error. Through the law of uncertainty propagation, an uncertainty model of estimated time of arrival is derived as a function of the Mach number, flight distance, wind, and temperature. The coefficients of the model are determined through cluster analysis and linear regression analysis. It is clearly demonstrated that the proposed model can estimate the uncertainty of estimated time of arrival without underestimation or overestimation at an arbitrary flight distance, even under moderate or severe weather conditions. Through numerical analysis of a 4D trajectory management using actual track data, it has been clearly demonstrated that the proposed model is able to improve both safety and efficiency of 4D trajectory management simultaneously.