抄録
One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population
and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often
expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA –
GIS based Evaluation for Land use and Agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential
cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed
demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market
integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA
findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and
soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3)in the low-yield case, all crop
prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.
