One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA – GIS based Evaluation for Land use and Agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3)in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.

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It is important to produce bioethanol from cellulosic biomass, which doesn’t compete with food. Ethanol production process from cellulosic biomass is classified by many pretreatment and saccharification methods. This study considers three methods that are using concentrated sulfuric acid hydrolysis (NEDO), dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment and enzyme saccharification (NREL), and hot water and milling pretreatment and enzyme saccharification (AIST). Three processes are designed by process simulator PRO/Ⅱ, and these material and energy balances are calculated. Conversion efficiencies of saccharification and fermentation are sensitive for ethanol production system, so the range of efficiency values is considered. Finally, these processes are evaluated by amount of CO₂ emission reduction. NEDO process needs a large amount of thermal energy for sulfuric acid recovery, and AIST process uses a lot of power for disk milling. NREL process achieves the highest CO₂ emission reduction. In the case of no byproduct (mainly lignin) use, however, all processes has a potential to be not able to reduce CO₂ emission. In order to reduce CO₂ emission, it is essential to use byproduct for process energy supply.

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Greenhouse gas emissions have increased rapidly in non-Annex B (developing countries). However, some of non-Annex B GHG emissions are transferred to Annex B (developed countries) for consumption purposes, which are embodied in international trade. The authors calculate CO₂ emissions embodied in Japan’s international trade from 1995 to 2005. The calculation is conducted by multi-region input-output (MRIO) model that includes emissions from processes and production methods (PPMs) in 26 states. This model shows that embodied CO₂ emissions in Japan’s imports are 276 Mt CO₂ in 1995, 303 Mt CO₂ in 2000 and 403 Mt CO₂ in 2005 (MER). These results reveal the embodied CO₂ emissions in international trade are relatively huge and its reflection is crucial to the discussion of policy-making in post-2012 regimes. To take count of embodied CO₂ emissions in trade the authors emphasize the importance of consumption accounting principle as well as present production accounting principle.

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