抄録
The model which simulates nation-wide energy consumption of the residential sector by considering the diversity of
household and building types is developed. Since the energy consumption for each household and building category is
simulated by the dynamic energy use simulation based on schedule of occupant’s activities and a heating and cooling load
calculation model, this model can evaluate various kinds of energy saving policies with considerable accuracy. In addition,
average energy efficiency of major home electric appliances used in residential sector and share of housing insulation levels
of whole existing houses in each year is predicted by ‘stock model’. In this paper, energy consumption and CO2 emission by
Japanese residential sector until 2025 is predicted. At the BAU case, CO2 emission will be reduced by 7% from 1990 level.
Some additional mitigation measures such as energy efficiency standard for home electric appliances, thermal insulation
code, reduction of stand-by power, high efficiency water heaters, energy efficient behavior of occupants, and dissemination of
PV are evaluated.
